Excessive Service Worker Turnover is a Systems Problem, NOT a Workforce Problem (TPL Insights #312)

May 11
4 min read

By Rob Andrews

Here’s the truth. Service worker churn is rarely a mystery. It is usually a system failure. And two systems drive most of the pain: how we schedule people and how we hire them.

HBR just published new research on scheduling that every service executive should read. Gallino and Apaolaza analyzed roughly 280 million shifts across 1.3 million employees in 20 major U.S. retail chains. The headline is simple. “Fix the schedule” is not one fix. Different scheduling issues hit different stores and employee groups in different ways. One blanket rule will not save you. (Gallino & Apaolaza, 2026)

That aligns with what I learned the hard way. In 1987, when I took over the Southwestern Division for National Convenience Stores, our hourly turnover was 330%. Within six months we cut it to about 50%. Not with gimmicks. Not with perks. We did it by identifying root causes and retraining managers to hire better.

The root cause was uncomfortable but clear. We were hiring people who were ill equipped for service work. Some did not like people. Some did not smile. Some were unreliable. In too many cases, we were hiring people struggling with addiction and instability who simply could not perform the job. Once we tightened recruiting, screening, and interviewing, churn collapsed.

Now back to scheduling. The HBR study found that scheduling has multiple dimensions that matter: week to week stability, advance notice, employee control over requests, fatigue from poor shift sequencing, and fairness compared with peers. (Gallino & Apaolaza, 2026) Those are real levers. But their impact varies dramatically by location and workforce segment.

The researchers used LASSO regression to filter 166 scheduling variables down to the few that actually predicted turnover. (Gallino & Apaolaza, 2026) In plain English, they stopped guessing. They measured what truly moved retention at each site.

Predictability helps in many places, but not always the most. Some companies with two to three weeks of advance notice had low attrition. Others with similar notice windows did not. (Gallino & Apaolaza, 2026) Notice matters, but it is not the whole story.

Managerial flexibility also varied widely. In some chains, fewer than half of schedule change requests were approved. In others, nearly all were approved. Higher approval rates often correlated with better retention, but not universally. Again, context matters. (Gallino & Apaolaza, 2026)

Here is the playbook I would run.

First, get off opinions and onto evidence. You already have the data. Timestamps, posted schedules, last minute changes, approvals, tenure, quits. Most firms use that data for payroll and compliance only. That is a waste. (Gallino & Apaolaza, 2026)

Segment your analysis. Look by store, region, tenure, and employment type. New hires may be driven by fatigue and unstable start times. Veterans may care more about fairness and consistency. The study showed those differences clearly. (Gallino & Apaolaza, 2026)

Also be honest about this. Scheduling is not always the main driver. The research found retailers where scheduling barely affected turnover. (Gallino & Apaolaza, 2026) If that is you, the problem may be pay, advancement, leadership, or culture.

Second, fix what matters most locally. Do not impose a corporate rule that makes headquarters feel disciplined but misses the real issue. In some stores, short rest windows between shifts were the problem. In others, perceived unfairness was the driver. (Gallino & Apaolaza, 2026)

Regulation is also shifting expectations. New York City’s Fair Workweek law requires advance notice and penalties for late changes in fast food. (NYC DCWP, 2023) Seattle’s secure scheduling ordinance similarly mandates advance notice. (City of Seattle, 2016) Whether or not you are covered, employees now expect stability.

Third, pilot and measure before scaling. Pick locations where your data shows one or two high impact levers. Tighten rest windows. Increase advance notice. Reduce last minute edits. Then measure retention, absenteeism, and service.

Scheduling improvements are one of the few retention levers that can improve outcomes without permanently raising labor costs. If done well, they reduce churn and improve productivity at the same time.

Fourth, empower managers. Algorithms suggest patterns. Managers translate them into reality. The researchers emphasize that local leaders must apply judgment and empathy. (Gallino & Apaolaza, 2026)

In my 1987 turnaround, the breakthrough was not the spreadsheet. It was manager capability. We taught managers how to recruit, how to screen for service mindset, how to interview for reliability and attitude. We stopped hiring “warm bodies” and started hiring people who actually wanted to serve customers.

That discipline has shaped our search practice for four decades. The principle is the same at every level. Define what success looks like. Measure it. Train leaders to execute against it. Then protect the culture by hiring accordingly.

Finally, make this a system, not a project. Build a dashboard that tracks schedule stability, notice windows, rest gaps, fairness indicators, and quits. Review it monthly. Coach managers. Adjust.

Turnover is expensive. Gallup notes that a significant portion of employee turnover is preventable. (Gallup, 2024) In thin margin service businesses, preventable churn can erase profit quickly.

The bottom line is simple. Scheduling can push good people out. Bad hiring will push them out faster. The solution is not one policy. It is a disciplined, data driven, manager led system.

I learned that at 330% turnover. I have applied it ever since. Stop guessing. Identify root causes. Train leaders. Hire better. Schedule smarter. Then build a culture people actually want to stay in.

Warmest,

Rob Andrews

Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

Celebrating 28 years of Executive Search, Leadership Advisory, and Interim Executive Excellence

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References

City of Seattle. (2016). Secure scheduling ordinance.

Gallino, S., & Apaolaza, B. (2026, March–April). The solution to service-worker churn. Harvard Business Review.